标题: A data-driven analysis of frequent patterns and variable importance for streamflow trend attribution
作者: Zeng, X (Zeng, Xiang); Schnier, S (Schnier, Spencer); Cai, XM (Cai, Ximing)
来源出版物: ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES 卷: 147 文献号: 103799 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103799 出版年: JAN 2021
摘要: Identifying key driving forces for streamflow variation is essential for improving sustainable water resource management in terms of understanding how changes in the watershed translate to changes in streamflow. In this study, the relationships between trends in total annual streamflow and trends in watershed characteristics across the contiguous U.S. during 1981-2016 are investigated with data from 2,621 USGS gages. The regions of homogeneous hydrologic change, i.e. watersheds that are undergoing similar statistically significant streamflow trends, are delineated and frequent pattern mining (i.e. Apriori algorithm) and variable importance (i.e. Random Forest) are used to derive the key driving forces for these regions. As expected, the trends in streamflow are highly associated with the trends of precipitation. In contrast, the influences of anthropogenic factors vary substantially across regions. Particularly, the influence of water use change tends to be significant in the regions dominated by agricultural land, e.g. Dakotas. The importance of land use change is highlighted in the regions with relatively large forest coverage, e.g. Northeast. However, these important identified water use changes are not frequently associated with the increasing streamflow in sub-regions, e.g. Great Lakes, and thus the significance of the water use impacts are site-specific. Therefore, the changes in climate and land use are frequently and importantly identified together in the sub-regions with increasing streamflow, which can be collectively used to discover the major causes of the streamflow trends in those regions. Although the impacts of changing water use are highlighted in the Southwest, climate trends are primarily responsible for the decreasing streamflow.
作者关键词: Annual streamflow; Climate change; Land use; Water use; Frequent pattern; Variable importance; Attribution analysis
地址: [Zeng, Xiang] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.
[Zeng, Xiang; Schnier, Spencer; Cai, Ximing] Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ven Te Chow Hydrosyst Lab, 205 N Mathews Ave, Urbana, IL 61801 USA.
[Schnier, Spencer] Freese & Nichols Inc, 10431 Morado Cir 300, Austin, TX 78759 USA.
通讯作者地址: Schnier, S (通讯作者)，Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ven Te Chow Hydrosyst Lab, 205 N Mathews Ave, Urbana, IL 61801 USA.
Schnier, S (通讯作者)，Freese & Nichols Inc, 10431 Morado Cir 300, Austin, TX 78759 USA.
版权所有 © 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院