标题：A counterfactual scenario simulation approach for assessing the impact of farmland preservation policies on urban sprawl and food security in a major grain-producing area of China作者：He, Jianhua; Liu, Yaolin; Yu, Yan; Tang, Wenwu; Xiang, Weining; Liu,Dianfeng

来源出版物：APPLIED GEOGRAPHY卷：37 页：127-138出版年：FEB 2013

摘要：A variety of studies have been conducted to assess the impact of farmland preservation policies in China. Most of these studies focus on the use of pure statistical approaches to assess the policy impact. A spatially explicit modeling framework is, however, often required to better assess the policy impact and to help understand the consequence of these policies. In this article, we developed such a spatially explicit modeling framework to assess the impact of policies on arable land loss and urban sprawl through the combination of counterfactual analysis with a scenario simulation approach. Counterfactual analysis provides support to assess the impact of farmland preservation policies, while scenario simulation enables us to generate counterfactual outcomes to capture possible land use patterns without policy intervention. With support from cellular automata, farmland preservation policies are integrated into the decision-making processes of land use conversion to link policy with scenario simulation. Our case study demonstrates the potential of the proposed modeling framework for the assessment of farmland preservation policies. Experimental results indicate that farmland preservation policies play an important role in terms of reducing the rate of arable land loss and governing spontaneous urban sprawl.

入藏号：WOS:000315005900011

文献类型：Article

语种：English

作者关键词：Counterfactual analysis, Scenario simulation, Farmland preservation, Urban sprawl, Food security, China

扩展关键词：LAND-USE CHANGE; CONSTRAINED CELLULAR-AUTOMATA; DRIVING FORCES; COVER CHANGE; MODEL; DYNAMICS; URBANIZATION; GIS; INTEGRATION; STRATEGIES

通讯作者地址：He, Jianhua;Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst, 129 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430079, Hubei Province, Peoples R China.

电子邮件地址：hjhwhu@gmail.com

地址：

[He, Jianhua; Liu, Yaolin; Liu, Dianfeng] WuhanUniv, Sch Resource & Environm Sci,Wuhan430079, Peoples RChina.

[He, Jianhua; Liu, Yaolin; Liu, Dianfeng] Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst,Wuhan430079,HubeiProvince, Peoples RChina.

[Yu, Yan]WuhanUniv Technol, Sch Resource & Environm Engn,Wuhan430072, Peoples RChina.

[Tang, Wenwu; Xiang, Weining] Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog & Earth Sci,Charlotte,NC28223USA.

[Tang, Wenwu] Univ N Carolina, Ctr Appl Geog Informat Sci,Charlotte,NC28223USA.

[Xiang, Weining] E China Normal Univ, Shanghai Inst Urban Ecol & Sustainabil, Shanghai Key Lab Urban Ecol Proc & Ecorestorat, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China.

研究方向：Geography

ISSN：0143-6228