标题: Evaluating the effects of future urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration under the shared socioeconomic pathways

作者: Yang, H (Yang, Huan); Wang, YW (Wang, Yanwen); Tu, PY (Tu, Peiyue); Zhong, YM (Zhong, Yanmei); Huang, CQ (Huang, Chaoqing); Pan, XH (Pan, Xinhao); Xu, KW (Xu, Kewei); Hong, S (Hong, Song)

来源出版物: ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS  卷: 160  文献号: 111831  DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111831  Published Date: 2024 MAR  

摘要: Assessing the effects of future urban expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for the sustainability of cities worldwide. Nonetheless, evaluating these effects of future urban expansion on ESs remains challenging due to the uncertainties associated with socioeconomic development and the intricate nature of urban expansion. In this research, we initially integrated the localized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model to project the urban expansion of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA). Subsequently, we quantified the impacts of urban expansion on ESs utilizing the Integrated Valuation of ESs and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The outcomes indicate that the urban land in the YRDUA is projected to expand by 1,020.19-12,282.04 km2 at a growth rate of 3.71-44.67% from 2022 to 2050. Simultaneously, habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), water retention (WR), and air purification (AP) are expected to decline by 0.34-4.24%, 0.48-5.82%, 0.39-4.75% and 0.20-2.45%, correspondingly. Most importantly, the primary cause of ES losses is the conversion of cropland to urban land, accounting for more than 90% of the total ES losses. The results offer crucial contextual insights to support future synergistic development policies for urbanization and ecological conservation in the YRDUA under increased climate change.

作者关键词: Urban expansion; Ecosystem services; Land use scenario dynamics-urban model; Localized shared socioeconomic pathways; Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration

地址: [Yang, Huan; Tu, Peiyue; Zhong, Yanmei; Huang, Chaoqing; Hong, Song] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Yang, Huan; Tu, Peiyue; Zhong, Yanmei; Huang, Chaoqing; Hong, Song] Wuhan Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst, Minist Educ, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Wang, Yanwen; Xu, Kewei] China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Wuhan 430078, Peoples R China.

[Pan, Xinhao] Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Sch Nat Resources, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Hong, S (通讯作者)，Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

Hong, S (通讯作者)，Wuhan Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Syst, Minist Educ, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

Wang, YW (通讯作者)，China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Wuhan 430078, Peoples R China.

电子邮件地址: wensomone@163.com; songhongpku@126.com

影响因子：6.9